Facts Are Stupid Things  – 8.28.15

Trump says he won’t eat Oreos anymore because Mondelez International, the multi-national conglomerate that bakes those cookies, is closing it’s plant in Chicago and moving it’s 600 jobs to Mexico.

Here’s the problem with Trump’s statement:  It’s just not entirely true and ignores a number of important facts.

Full disclosure: I have happily owned a few shares of Mondelez stock for a few years now.

In short, Mondelez has two baking facilities on the South Side of Chicago  that have been there since the late 1950s.  They are upgrading equipment and cutting the number of productions lines from 9 to 4. They tried to get $42 million in concessions from Chicago to keep the bakery there, because that is what they save if they move those 4 lines to a newer facility in Salinas, Mexico.
Even if they had kept the 4 production lines at that baking facility in Chicago, the upgrade in equipment was going to cost 300 jobs anyway.
Here’s another important fact. Illinois is their international HQ and they still employ a large number of people in all kinds of jobs.  Most importantly, where Trump is concerned, the initial news reports in May indicate that Oreos are not one of the products currently made at that baking facility

So now you deserve some supporting evidence:

In this SF Examiner story, you can read all of Trump’s categorical statements in the lead two paragraphs.
And then buried at the bottom, in italics, the following correction:

*Correction – According to Laurie M. Guzzinati Senior Director, Corporate & Government Affairs North America, Mondelēz Global LLC – Nabisco recently announced a significant investment in a Salinas, Mexico baking plant. The move affects 600 jobs at a bakery near Chicago, though Nabisco says that facility would remain open.

Read it here:
Trump says no more Oreo’s as Nabisco Moves business to Mexico

A second source supporting the same facts is this Sun Times piece:
Read this one:
Mondelez to cut 600 jobs in Chicago

For confirmation of the job cuts that were going to happen anyway, here’s a good one from when the story first ran:
Mondelez seeks job cuts, wants to vacate one of two South Side bakery buildings

And here is a piece from May to give even greater perspective:
Mondelez to cut Chicago jobs, send some work to Mexico

Important notes: Mondelez still employs roughly 13,000 people in the United States and more than 90, 000 more in countries all around the world.  40% of its sales originate in Europe.  Only 20% in the U.S..

So Mondelez didn’t shut down it’s entire plant and move it to Mexico as Trump said.  And according to the one report that offered details, Oreo’s aren’t even made in the baking facility that is being phased out. (That one is subject to further review)

So when it comes to the Donald Trump telling you that the people who make Oreos shut down their plant in Chicago and shipped all it’s jobs down to Mexico you now know that both “baking facilities” remain open, still providing jobs for Americans.  Furthermore, Illinois is Mondelez International’s global headquarters.

Not shutting the plant. Fact.
Not moving all jobs to Mexico. Fact.
Chicago Tribune report lists products baked at facility. Oreos not listed. Fact.
300 jobs were going to be eliminated even if second baking facility got the 4 modernized production lines.  Fact.
Mondelez is overwhelmingly a foreign based operation. Fact.
Illinois is Mondelez International global HQ. Fact.
13,000 still employed by Mondelez in U.S.  Fact.

Go FactEmToDeath.

 

Addendum: This just in : Don’t Worry Donald Trump, Oreo Cookies Will Still Be Made In The USA

Facts Are Stupid Things  8.22.15

The Debate: An unconfirmed A.P. story told of an early draft of the nuclear agreement between Six Nations and Iran that according to the report would allow the Iranians to “self inspect” this facility.

 

The Skinny: Based on this unconfirmed report, the media-sphere is full of attacks asking how on earth we would make an agreement that allowed the Iranians to police their own nuclear facilities? The answer, according the the director of the IAEA is that no such condition exists.  It is also important to note that Parchin burned to the ground in 2014.  The exact circumstances surrounding it’s destruction are subject to debate. It is also important ot note that Parchin is not an currently active nuclear research site.

 

So What Happened?

Well, according to the IAEA big boss:

“I am disturbed by statements suggesting that the IAEA has given responsibility for nuclear inspections to Iran. Such statements misrepresent the way in which we will undertake this important verification work,” IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano said in an unusually strongly worded statement on Thursday.

Full Text Here: IAEA says report Iran to inspect own military site is ‘misrepresentation’

While Iranians would be involved, as with other agreements the IAEA operates under, that agency would have means of verification. For more on that read here:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/1U.S. acknowledges likely Iranian role in nuclear site inspections

For a more in depth look at this issue, read this Max Fisher piece on Vox.com:

The AP’s controversial and badly flawed Iran inspections story, explained

In Short:
When it comes to the allegation that the six nation nuclear agreement allows the Iranians to self inspect their active nuclear research facilities, the stupid facts are: They do not.

On Iranian self inspection: you can now FactEmToDeath.

Facts Are Stupid Things   8.17.15

The debate:

Why did Barack Obama promise the final deal with Iran would assure “anytime, anywhere” inspections when it gives the Iranians 24 days before we can go in?

The Skinny:

While the hypothesis is cleverly phrased, the facts indicate that neither Barack Obama, John Kerry or any other member of their administration promised “anytime, anywhere” access to all of Iran.

So what did happen?

Back in April, a man named Ben Rhodes, the national security adviser for strategic communications, did an interview on Israeli TV, as later reported by the Times Of Israel, in which he made the case that the deal they were closing in on was the best that could be hoped for; that the administration is not blind to who the Iranians are and how they operate; and that without the agreement, Iran could have nuclear weapons without doubt, in less than a year.  Specifically, Rhodes, in explaining the deal  said there would be “anytime, anywhere” access to nuclear sites.  Those are the known sites where weapons grade development is presently under way.

Read the interview here.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/top-obama-adviser-dismisses-idea-that-better-iran-deal-is-possible/

Rhodes  then went further, stating there would also be a process for obtaining access to suspected sights through unprecedented IAEA and UN involvement.  Suspected sites can be inspected using an IAEA/UN protocol that could take up to 24 days.

You can find more on IAEA involvement here:
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran

The Secretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz was greatly involved in the negotiations and has consistently said that –no matter how good the Iranians have become at covering  up suspected sites in the past — the residual radioactivity could not possibly be erased in that short amount of time.  Secretary Moniz is also a nuclear physicist associated with MIT.

You can read comments from Moniz and John Kerry here:
http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/washington-politics/secretary-of-state-kerry-energy-secretary-moniz-rebut-sen-schumer-on-iran-20150811

Summary: The premise of the accusation is false. The words were those of Ben Rhodes, not Barack Obama or John Kerry. What was promised and delivered is unfettered access to known nuclear development sites. What was also stated at the time was that the agreement would include a process for gaining access to suspected sites. Both components are included in the agreement and the Secretary of Energy, himself a nuclear physicist says that is not enough time to hide traces of radioactivity.

So when it comes to the ” Anytime, Anywhere,” you are now prepared to FactEmToDeath.